Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Fibonacci Forex Trading Signal

The fact that Fibonacci numbers have found their way to Forex trading is hard to deny. Moreover, trading currencies with Fibonacci tool for many traders have become the bread and butter of their whole trading career. So, shall we look at the one of such good Forex trading systems today?

Trading setup and tools we need:
Time frame: 3 hour (or 4 hour).
Currency pairs: any.
Fibonacci tool - our main tool
EMA 100 – green (visual guidance)
SMA 150 – red (visual guidance)
RSI (14) on a daily chart

We will be working with next Fibonacci retracement levels: 0.382, 0.618, 0.250 and 0.750.
Default stop loss – roughly 100 pips and then adjusted according to the most recent swing high/low.
Profit target – no target is set as we will let the profits run.
Trading Rules:
Find the closest to the current price wave with a distance from High to Low over 100 pips.
Apply Fibonacci on it no matter if the wave is going up or down, only size matters.
Some terms we are going to use here:
The corridor between 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and 0.618 retracement on the chart – will be called a “must channel”.
Fibonacci retracement levels will be numbered always from bottom to top, no matter whether it is an up or a down wave. E.g. at the bottom we will always have 0.250, then next 0.382, 0.618 and finally on top – 0.750 Fibonacci retracement level.
Entry rules:
Always enter only according with both:
1. EMA and SMA trend suggestion (e.g. green on top – uptrend, red on top - downtrend)
2. RSI suggestion (e.g. reading below 50 – only sell orders, above – only buy orders).

Now, after applying Fibonacci on a wave bigger than 100 pips we wait for the price to go inside a “must channel” area (at least to make 1 pip into the channel). Only then next rules will be valid:
- If a full candle (including shadows) is closed below 0.250 Fibonacci retracement, we go short. If we are currently long – it is time to close long position – it is an exit rule as well.
- If a full candle (including shadows) is closed above 0.750 Fibonacci retracement, we go long. If till this time we had short positions open – we close them – and again it is an exit rule as well.

Important: once another wave greater than 100 pips occur, set a new Fibonacci on the new wave. Retracement levels will change and so we will now follow new retracements.
(Optional: for visual aid traders may mark old Fibonacci wave to see the general pattern of consecutive waves on the chart).

click image to enlarge

That’s it. Stay in trade, resetting Fibonacci with each new wave and moving a stop loss according to the last swings high or low (in simple words, a stop loss will be always just below the Fibonacci 0% line) until it is time to close the position according to our rules.

This strategy prevents a lot of “bad” entries, eliminates early exits and allows staying in trade for a long period of time helping to take everything a current move can offer.
Traders may close all good winning positions on Friday evening if they prefer not to hold them over a weekend.

By: Edward Revy

Sunday, October 14, 2007

IB Forex Trading - 40 to 100 Pips per Day

This forex system is very simple and requires only one indicator. The system works in anytime frame and with any pair. The Indicator you need is Slow Stochastic setting 8.3.3 some platforms will only allow 8.3 that’s ok.

Next the key part of the system in all trades is the INSIDE BAR or IB. An IB is simply when the current bar is less than or equal to the bar to the left of it. The inside bar can also be the same size as the previous bar.

klik to enlarge the picture

THE INSIDE BAR is a standard technical analysis pattern; however most people over look it. You can also use an outside bar or OB.

First look for an IB to form then check if it’s a valid IB with the stochastic indicator set up.

When stochastic are below or around the 20 and oversold and starting to hook round look for an IB to go long, When stochastic are up to 80 and above and starting to hook round in overbought look for an IB to go short you will find them the best in trending markets also range bound markets but if the price action is choppy stay out.

The Stochastic don't have to be exactly 80-20 but it is stronger signal if they are. Sometimes as an example they may at 35 as long as they start to turn and hook up and an IB forms it’s a possible valid trade.

To enter a trade wait for the next bar after the IB to go up 1-2 pips higher than the IB for a buy signal or 1-2 pips lower for a sell signal. Also the shadow of the IB must be inside the prior bar as well in the overall size otherwise it’s not a valid signal.

If after the IB formed you get another bar the same size as the IB and it doesn’t go 1-2 pips either way then you may look at up to 3 more bars after the IB bar to confirm a signal and enter a trade. If you don’t get a signal stand a side and wait for a new IB to form.

For stops and exits you can trail a stop at the bottom of the prior bar to the IB by 1-2 pips if you’re more Aggressive 2 bars below the prior bar to the IB.

Exit when stochastic cross in the opposite direction but becarefull when going long as when stochastic hits 80 it can hang around a while first before carrying on up or just staying flat in a strong up trend so wait for a hook down and heading under the 80 level or a reversal candle to exit. Also to exit look for the big numbers if you were trading GBP/USD. Try not to enter trades around the big numbers wait for price to go through and retrace to the support or resistance then look for an IB to form and take the trade.

I look at a 1 hour chart first and see what the over all trend for the day is going to be then trade off a 15 min chart for the day.

One of the benefits of this System is it can get you into trades early before the crowd. Once you have demo the system how would you like to trade live

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