USDCAD Trading Strategy as at November 17, 2014

Any USDCAD Trading Strategy will have to be tempered with the view that this pair is going lower in, at least, the short term.


There have been some fluctuations in price in this pair as the two economies are facing different hurdles.

I have a chart here showing some divergence that probably indicates that the Canadian dollar will be settling lower in days to come.

I have another chart, a Point and Figure chart of the Canadian Dollar which shows a target of .86, also indicating a further drop.

In fundamental news affecting the Canadian Dollar:

• International Securities Transactions lower than expected.
• Oil Prices softening
• Gold prices easing back into a consolidation

On Friday will be released the Canadian Consumer Price Index(CPI) which may influence the Canadian Dollar in a positive way.

My expectation is that the US Dollar will resume its rise against the Canadian Dollar in the short term.

USDCAD Trading Strategy As At November 16, 2014

Some notes to adjust your trading strategy for the USDCAD pair.

Markets closed a bit lower on Friday, just above support at the March 20^th high. A drop in price can be expected based on the divergences starting to appear.

The chart shows similar to 'Three Drives to a Top' which may be another indication of an easing being in the cards for the future.

The Canadian Dollar has been supported by some positive data in the past week, the price of oil has rebounded a bit, manufacturing sales rose more than expected, while in the US retail sales rose more than expected.

Rail Transport is much improved since the beginning of the year as shown on this chart, reflecting to a large degree the amount of oil being shipped by rail

Real Estate residential sales remains at a brisk pace in Canada as evidenced by these figures supplied by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Lastly, from Bloomberg, 'The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index increased to 89.4, exceeding the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey and the strongest since July 2007, from a final reading of 86.9 in October. The median projection called for a gain to 87.5.'

Good Trading..!